基于组合预测模型的江苏省卫生人力资源需求预测探讨

Prediction of Health Human Resource Demand in Jiangsu Province Based on Combination Prediction Mode

目的：了解当前江苏省卫生人力资源供给现状，预测卫生人员变化趋势，为江苏省卫生人力资源供需平衡提供合理的建议。方法：分析比较灰色模型预测、二次回归预测和Holt-Winters非季节预测模型，并在此基础上运用“预测误差平方和倒数法”构建江苏省卫生人力资源组合预测模型，分别预测分析江苏省卫生人员、卫生技术人员、执业（助理）医师、注册护士总量的变化趋势。结果：与单项预测模型相比，组合预测模型预测误差最小，稳定性最好，是相对最优的卫生人力需求预测模型，江苏省卫生人力需求将来还会逐年持续增加。结论：江苏省对于卫生人力需求仍然很大，应该加强卫生专业人才全面建设，提高卫生人力整体素质，合理配置卫生人力资源。

Objectives：To analyze on supply situation of human resources on health and to forecast the development trend of human resources on heath in J iangsu, so as to provide reasonable suggestions for the balance of supply and demand of health human resources in Jiangsu Province. Methods：Gray prediction model , quadratic regression model and Holt-Winters model were analyzed and compared. On the basis of the Prediction error square sum reciprocal method, a combined forecasting model of health human resources in Jiangsu Province was constructed.  The total number of health personnel, health technicians,  practicing physicians and registered nurses in Jiangsu Province were forecasted and analyzed respectively. Results：The combined forecasting model has the least error and the best stability than the single forecasting model. It is the relatively optimal forecasting model for health manpower demand. The demand for health manpower in Jiangsu Province will continue to increase year by year in the future. Conclusion： There is still a great demand for health manpower in Jiangsu Province. We should strengthen the overall construction of health professionals, improve the overall quality of health manpower and rationally allocate health manpower